Philippines changes the 'cha-cha' tune

ALLIES of Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo have dropped plans to amend the constitution ahead of presidential elections next year, and the polls will go ahead as scheduled, officials and analysts said.

Manila has been rife with talk in recent months that the administration would pursue the plan to help Arroyo and senior elected officials circumvent constitutionally-set term limits and remain in office.

But there has been strong opposition from Arroyo’s political foes and from the powerful Church, leading to worries of divisiveness and possible unrest if the government stuck to its guns.

"If you are asking me about cha-cha (charter change), I can’t see that there is going to be time for it any more," said Ronaldo Puno, Arroyo’s chief political strategist.

"The process of going through the legislature and then the probable challenge in the Supreme Court and then subsequently a plebiscite – that time frame does not seem likely to fit within the remaining time," he said in an interview. "Time is against any kind of change."

Economists have warned that any possibility of unrest in the country would be hugely detrimental for financial markets and for prospective foreign investment, given growing risk aversion following the global financial crisis.

Elections are due in May next year. Arroyo will not be eligible to contest under laws that prohibit more than a single six-year elected term for the president. Varying limits are prescribed for other elected officials.

While some opposition politicians warn that government allies may still stage a last-minute attempt to remove term limits, the space to do so seems to be rapidly shrinking.

The only resolution in the House of Representatives relating to constitutional amendments, or charter change, is a move by the legislature to amend some provisions relating to the economy, including easing limits on foreign investment in certain sectors.

But many see this as a thinly-disguised attempt to ram through provisions removing the term limits on elected officials, and so it is being dropped for now, Puno said.

"There is a certainty on the part of everyone that no, they are not really talking about economic provisions, they are talking about perpetuation in office," added Puno.