Asians have the least desire to migrate

About 45 million people would like to move to Canada and make a new life here, a global poll on migration desires showed.
Those yearning for Canada  are among  16% of the world’s adults or roughly 700 million people who would like to move to another country permanently if they could, according the latest Gallup’s Potential Net Migration Index.
The Gallup poll conducted in 135 countries between 2007 and 2009, concludes that if all adults actually moved to their desired destination country today, some countries would suffer tremendous losses and others would be overwhelmed.
The poll also shows that the global economic recession has not curbed the desire of the world’s poor to seek a better future by migrating, Gallup Inc. said.
The top tier of most desired destinations was led by the United States, with about 165 million people, followed by Canada (45 million), United Kingdom (45 million), France (45 million), Spain (35 million), Saudi Arabia (30 million), Germany (30 million) and Australia (25 million).
The second tier includes countries chosen by 1 million to 5 million as their most-desired migration destinations. Some countries included in this tier are China, Indonesia, India and Mexico.
The last group - where fewer than 500,000 marked as their most-desired migration destinations - includes Vietnam, the Philippines and Bangladesh, among others.
The report said that implications of hundreds of millions of people harboring desires to migrate are on government leaders in both countries of origin and destination to develop immigration policies and development strategies.
“If all adults who desire to move to another country permanently actually moved to their desired destination country today, some countries would suffer tremendous losses in human capital and others would be overwhelmed,” the report said.
“In most countries, people’s desire to relocate did not decrease meaningfully after the global economic crisis hit in 2008,” said Neli Esipova, the polling agency’s director of research for global migration.
Almost eight of ten respondents who said they would like to emigrate were in a developing country, the poll showed. The vast majority of the latter said they would like to live in a developed country.
If all the would-be migrants acted on their desire, some rich countries would see their population swell and some poor ones would be depleted, Gallup said.
The population of Singapore would more than triple and the population of Saudi Arabia, New Zealand and Canada would swell by 180, 175 and 170 percent respectively, according to the poll.
Countries like Sierra Leone, Haiti and El Salvador would lose about half their population, according to the poll.
“But reality does not match desires,” Esipova said.
Migrants’ theoretical wishes often come up against barriers such as visa requirements which force them to move to countries that are not their first choice.
Gallup’s Potential Net Migration Index is the number of adults who want to move out of a country subtracted from the number who would like to move to it.
Countries with a higher Potential Net Migration Index have high potential population gains. At the top of this list is Singapore (+260 percent), while the Democratic Republic of the Congo posts the highest negative PNMI (-60 percent).
Of the 700 million that would like to move to another country, Gallup found that citizens of sub-Saharan African countries have the highest desire to do so. About 165 million people, or 38 percent of the population, said they’d migrate internationally if the opportunity arose.
On the flip side, people living in Asian countries have the least desire to migrate internationally. Only 10 percent of the population said they would like to move permanently to another country.
Interestingly, the United States, which is the top desired destination among all potential migrants, does not make the top five in terms of potential net population growth.
The United States’ net migration value of +60% places it farther down the list, after Canada and several other developed nations that dominate the top of the list.
Developing countries, in contrast, dominate the bottom of the list. The countries with the highest negative Potential Net Migration Index values are the Democratic Republic of the Congo (Kinshasa) (-60%), Sierra Leone (-55%), and Zimbabwe (-55%), Haiti (-50%), and El Salvador (-50%).
While Gallup’s findings reflect people’s aspirations rather than their intentions, the implications of what could happen if hypothetical desires became reality are serious considerations for leaders to think about as they plan development and migration strategies now and in the future.
Gallup plans to continue to monitor trends in desired migration, and will publish an updated index that includes more countries in early 2010.

Where migrants want to go to Countries with highest PNMI*

1. Singapore (+260 per cent)
2. Saudi Arabia (+180 per cent)
3. New Zealand (+175 per cent)
4. Canada (+170 per cent)
5. Australia (+145 per cent)

* The PNMI is the estimated number of adults who wish to leave a country permanently subtracted from the estimated number who wish to immigrate to the country, as a proportion of the total adult population.

Top destinations (by country)

1. United States
2. Canada
3. Britain
4. France
5. Spain

Top sources of potential migrants (by region)

1. Sub-Saharan Africa
2. Middle East and North Africa
3. Europe
4. Americas
5. Asia