Immigration set to drive Canada’s population growth

Immigration will be the key driver for Canada’s population to grow, rising from 38 million in 2021 to 56.5 million in 2068 according to a new report by Statistics Canada.

“From 38.2 million people in 2021, Canada’s population may reach between 42.9 million and 52.5 million in 2043 and between 44.9 million and 74 million in 2068, according to the various projection scenarios,” the national statistical agency reported.

“If Canada’s population continues to increase in the future, it will be mainly because of immigration, which is expected to remain quite significant in the coming decades, albeit at varying levels according to the different growth scenarios, “it stated.

In its Population Projections for Canada, Provinces, and Territories report, StatsCan predicts that Alberta is expected to have the highest growth in the country, as the province's population in 2043 is expected to be 31 to 61 percent bigger than it is now.

Population growth in B.C., Ontario, and Saskatchewan is projected to be around 14 to 40 percent by 2043, according to the analysis.

Manitoba's population is expected to grow 11 to 40 percent, while the population of Quebec is estimated to grow between 12 to 19 percent.

Atlantic Canada's population could fall by 1.5 percent or increase by up to 16 percent by 2043, the report said. Newfoundland and Labrador is the only province forecasted to have negative population growth in every projection scenario. Population growth in the territories is expected to be around eight to 28 percent.

StatsCan said Canada's population will continue to age in the coming decades.

In a medium-growth projection scenario, the average age in Canada increases from 41.7 years in 2021 to 44.1 in 2043 and to 45.1 in 2068.

The proportion of people aged 65 and older increases from 18.5% in 2021 to 23.1% in 2043 and 25.9% in 2068 in a medium-growth scenario.

The population aged 85 and older may more than triple over the same period, from 871,000 in 2021 to 3.2 million in 2068.

The report comes in the wake of Canada announcing that it aims to attract about 1.3 million new immigrants over the next three years to help fill critical labour shortages and fuel post-pandemic growth.

The 2022–2024 Immigration Levels Plan aims to continue welcoming immigrants at a rate of about 1 percent of Canada’s population, including 431,645 permanent residents in 2022 (an increase of about 21,000 people from its original plan), 447,055 in 2023, and 451,000 in 2024.

The Century Initiative, a Canadian charity that aims to increase Canada's population to 100 million by 2100, said immigration is the defining feature of the nation’s economic strategy. “Immigration drives 82% of Canada’s population growth, and over the next five years, will account for 100% of Canada’s net labour force growth.,” the group said in a report last June.

“International and Canadian evidence shows that immigration has significant potential to boost economic prosperity. But that benefit depends on sound policy choices. Policies that help improve immigrant productivity, by enabling immigrants to innovate, find work quickly, use their skills and education, invest in Canada, and succeed in the long term, are not just good for those immigrants, they build prosperity for all.”

The latest StatsCan report comes as the country struggles to fill over million job vacancies and a historical visa application backlog that has close to three million people waiting around the world to enter Canada.

Provincial Immigration Ministers from Ontario, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba recently sent a letter to their federal counterpart Sean Fraser, saying they want more control over the immigration process and be allowed to choose newcomers who have "the greatest chance of success."

"We need the ability to respond to the rapidly evolving needs of specific areas and communities, with a flexible system that we can adapt to changing economic and humanitarian needs," the letter states.

"We are facing a global race for talent as people all around the world search for a better place to build a life for themselves and their families."

The letter sent on July 26, noted that there are labour shortages across the country and Canada must do more to attract immigrants with in-demand skills, particularly in skilled trades.

“It is time the Federal Government respected provinces and allowed them to seize this opportunity, recruit workers, and offer them good jobs,” it stated.

In another recent report by the Business Council of Canada, Canadian employers cited “processing delays” as the top barrier to recruiting international talent.

Processing delays are the top barrier experienced by employers when recruiting international talent, stated the report, which was based on a survey of 80 companies that employ nearly 1,650,000 Canadians in more than 20 industries, generating revenues of approximately $1.2 trillion in 2020.

The Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) in an analysis said 55 per cent of small businesses are experiencing labour shortages.

And after recently surveying 1,200 entrepreneurs and 3,000 members of the working-age population, the Business Development Bank of Canada also found that more than a quarter of Canadian employers are having a hard time retaining their employees.

Among the hardest hit sectors are the trucking industry, which estimates a shortage of about 55,000 drivers by the end of 2023; the health care sector, which accounts for nearly one in five job vacancies in Canada; and the resurgent hospitality industry, which has 210,000 fewer employees now than it did in February 2020.