Philippine climate poised to become more unpredictable

Climate change is triggering killer heat waves and devastating floods, resulting in thousands of deaths as scientists warn that these natural disasters will become more frequent and more lethal across Asia.

The World Health Organisation estimates that by the 2030s heat-related deaths in the Asia-Pacific’s high-income countries may rise by 1,488, and by more than 21,000 across the entire Asian continent. On a global scale, rising temperatures are expected to cause around 250,000 additional deaths per year between 2030 and 2060, through heat exposure, tropical disease, undernutrition, and diarrhea.

The Philippines is among the countries most threatened by climate change, after India and Pakistan, according to an HSBC report. Parts of Manila flood every year and the city has been ranked the world’s most exposed to natural disasters.

This year has been no different.

This week, media reports said that at least three people have died and nearly 60,000 have been displaced by widespread floods in the Philippine capital and northern provinces over the weekend.

More than one million people have been hit by the floods, which reached as high as 180 centimeters in some areas in metropolitan Manila, the national relief agency said.

More than 33,000 residents in the capital had been forced to flee their homes since last Saturday, while some 26,000 people were also displaced in 10 northern provinces, it added.

The Philippine climate is poised to become warmer and more unpredictable, a report by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) stated.

The agency produced an updated set of projections on temperature and rainfall changes by 2050 and 2100, given the recent impacts of climate change in the country in a nearly one-degree warmer world.

“Climate change has played an important role in the occurrence of heat waves,” said Fu Cheung Sham, a chief experimental officer at the Hong Kong Observatory. “As [the] climate warms, the chances of extreme heat will correspondingly increase.”

A recent study in the journal PLOS Medicine described how the increase in frequency and severity of heatwaves would trigger a dramatic spike in heat-related deaths across the world, especially if carbon emissions are not checked.

The average number of heatwave-related deaths in Japan, which currently stands at more than 2,000 per year, might jump 170 percent between 2030 and 2080. That is in a worst-case scenario with rising carbon emissions, growing populations, and no public policy measures.

Under the same assumptions, the Philippines might see an increase of more than 1,300 percent in the number of fatalities provoked by high temperatures. There are currently 322 per year.

But even with lower carbon emissions and better policy preparedness, the study predicted the number of deaths caused by heatwaves would still increase in most of the 20 countries examined.

Elsewhere in Asia, it has been even worse. The Korean peninsula has been gripped by extreme heat since mid-July, pushing the mercury to an all-time high of 40.7 degrees Celsius in the South Korean city of Hongcheon. The heatwave has caused at least 42 deaths so far.

The North, which has a high incidence rate of malnourishment and is secretive about those numbers, has said it is suffering “an unprecedented natural disaster” that is destroying its crops.

In Japan, torrential rains recently triggered floods and landslides in the southwest, leaving more than 200 people dead, before a heatwave saw temperatures rise to a record-breaking 41.1 degrees, leaving another 80 dead.

In Vietnam, temperatures above 40 degrees in northern and central parts of the country have raised energy consumption to an all-time peak usage rate of 725 million kWh.

Meanwhile, drought has affected up to 40 percent of Inner Mongolia, in northern China, in recent months, causing a plague of rats in its sprawling grasslands. According to Xinhua, the region saw a 25 percent reduction in rainfall during the second half of June while temperatures rose about 1 degree.

“What was once regarded as unusually warm weather will become commonplace – in some cases, it already has,” said Friederike Otto, from the university’s Environmental Change Institute.

And it’s not just the heat. A study by the Asian Development Bank found that tropical cyclones like Haiyan, which left more than 6,000 dead in the Philippines in November 2013, are becoming stronger due to the increase of sea surface temperatures.

Fu, of the Hong Kong Observatory, predicted “more hot nights and very hot days but fewer cold days; more high heat stress days with longer duration; more frequent extreme rainfall; rising mean sea levels with an increasing threat of storm surge brought about by tropical cyclones”.

As Typhoon Haiyan tragically showed in 2013, the island nation of the Philippines is among the countries that are most exposed to natural hazards. It is also at high risk from climate change.

"Heat stress, extreme precipitation, inland and coastal flooding, as well as drought and water scarcity pose risks" to Manila and other tropical and sub-tropical coastal cities, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Coastal areas of Metro Manila are "faced with the possibility of having ... huge portions of their communities submerged.".

As part of the Paris Agreement, the Philippines pledged to meet a 70 percent reduction of climate emissions by 2030. Back in 2009, it created a national climate-change commission, which runs adaptation and mitigation initiatives.

President Rodrigo Duterte's stance on climate change has fluctuated, but a $500 million flood-control system for Metro Manila—part of the president's "golden age of infrastructure"—is set to begin construction soon.

"Through this program, the country envisions to put in place a modern and efficient public transportation system — better roads, bridges, airports, seaports, and railway systems — that will ensure accessibility to even the most far-flung areas in the Philippines," a government spokesman said.